4%-8%: Success Rate Of Clean Candidates In Bihar
By : Manoj K & Aman Madan
Update: 2015-10-05 03:30 GMT
Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here. Note: Heinous cases are those involving offences related to murder, extortion, kidnapping, robbery and dacoity, and crimes against women & children, including rape. If convicted for these offences, the punishment ranges from 7 years to life imprisonment or the death sentence.
While the issue of criminalisation in politics comes up during every election, what makes the issue more serious in the context of Bihar is the nature of crimes that the candidates have been facing. In 2005, the BJP gave tickets to 26 candidates who declared 35 charges of murder, 16 of extortion, 7 of kidnapping, and five counts of robbery and dacoity.Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.
It became worse in 2010. As many as 43 candidates of the JD(U), the party headed by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, had 79 charges of murder, 20 of extortion, 11 of kidnapping, while 42 Congress candidates had 61 murder-related offences. The BJP gave tickets to 25 candidates who declared 47 murder charges, 12 extortion, 13 kidnapping and 2 cases of rape.Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.
Parties clearly choose candidates with the most serious charges Of 2,029 candidates who contested the 2005 Bihar elections, 1,539 candidates were “clean”; they declared they did not have any criminal cases against them. Of the remaining 490, in addition to 274 candidates facing “heinous” cases, 113 were facing “very serious” cases, 36 candidates were facing cases where, if convicted, the maximum punishment would range between two to five years and 67 candidates were facing cases with a maximum punishment of less than two years. These figures point to the fact that the degree of taint also matters for political parties. Of the candidates facing criminal cases, 56% (274 of 490) faced “heinous” cases and 23% (113 of 490) faced “very serious” charges. Parties chose candidates facing grievous charges (for which the maximum punishment if convicted is more 5 years and can be up to life imprisonment or death sentence) than the ones that had lesser punishments, if convicted.Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.
Similarly, during the 2010 Bihar elections, of the 1,207 candidates with pending criminal cases, 50% (600 of 1,207) had heinous cases and another 28% (340 of 1,207) had “very serious” cases pending against them. So, parties prefer to give tickets to candidates who have “heinous” and “very serious” charges pending against them.Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.
Only 8% of clean candidates won in 2005; 4% in 2010 It's clear why parties chose candidates with criminal records. Of the 1,539 “clean” candidates who contested the 2005 assembly elections in Bihar, only 126 (8%) were elected; 22% of candidates with “heinous" cases won--61 of 274. Of 113 candidates facing “very serious” charges (including rioting, cheating and forgery), 23 (20%) made it to the assembly. This means candidates with “heinous” and “very serious” charges had around three times better chances of winning elections in Bihar than “clean” candidates.Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.
The success rate of “clean” candidates worsened during the 2010 elections--no more than 4% (82 of 1,851) won. The success rate for candidates facing “heinous charges” was 11% and for candidates with “very serious” cases 12%, again three times better chances of victory than candidates with no criminal records.Source: Self-sworn affidavits submitted by contesting candidates to ECI, Bihar Chief Electoral Officer 1, 2. View raw data here.
(Manoj K is a graduate of the Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi, and the founder of the Centre for Governance and Development. He has a special interest in transparency and accountability in governance and has spearheaded several projects on these subjects. He can be contacted at manoj@cgdindia.org. Madan is a commerce and law graduate from the University of Delhi. He has previously worked with McKinsey India and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. He is currently practising as an advocate in the Delhi High Court.) (This story is part of IndiaSpend’s special analyses of Bihar. You can read the other stories of this series here.)“Liked this story? IndiaSpend.org is a non-profit, and we depend on readers like you to drive our public-interest journalism efforts. Donate Rs 500; Rs 1,000, Rs 2,000.”