Large Variations The Mainstay In ‘Normal’ Monsoon 2024

Like last year, parts of Northeast India have seen deficient rainfall this year as well along with parts of Jammu and Kashmir, and Himachal Pradesh.

India’s overall rainfall stood at a 6.1% surplus this year (as of September 26)--compared to the long period average, which is average of the rainfall recorded over a long period, like 30 or 50 years. Experts believe this is a largely positive sign for the upcoming kharif yield. A good yield might, in turn, also keep food prices in check, offering some respite to consumers.

Climate change is making our monsoon more erratic, as is being witnessed year after year. As monsoon 2024 comes to an end, we found large variations in the geographical area covered as well as weekly variation in rainfall.

The plus and the minus

This year, monsoon onset over Kerala happened two days early, that is, on May 30. It had covered the entire country by July 2 as against its normal date of July 8.

Last year, the monsoon ended at -6% or a 6% deficit, which falls in the ‘normal’ range as per India Meteorological Department (IMD). This year, India has received 905.6 mm rain up to September 26, a 6.1% surplus. This, while June 2024 had ended at a 11% deficit. But rainfall recovered in July at a 9% surplus which further improved to 15% surplus in August.

Since September 30 is considered the end of the southwest monsoon season by the IMD, it is likely that the season will end on a positive note, with overall rainfall being categorised as ‘normal’. Monsoon season’s normal rainfall is considered within the range of +10% or -10% of the long period average. Currently, India’s long period average is 880 mm.

Source: India Meteorological Department

District-wise distribution of rainfall over India as on September 26. The blues indicate excess rainfall whereas the reds and yellows indicate deficient and large deficient rainfall

Even though this monsoon will be categorised as ‘normal’ as a whole, there are wide regional variations. Nagaland stands at 32% deficit, followed by Manipur (31%), Arunachal Pradesh and Punjab (29%), Bihar (28%), J&K (27%) and Himachal Pradesh (20%). Bihar and Punjab are important states from the point of view of kharif crops. Deficient rainfall in J&K and HP might also affect production of apples.

Even last year, states such as Kerala, Karnataka, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Gangetic West Bengal and the four states together in the North East (Mizoram, Manipur, Tripura and Nagaland) had ended in the negatives, all deficient beyond 20%, possibly because of El Nino weather phenomenon.

This year, the subdivisions that have received ‘large excess’ rainfall are in the otherwise drier states of Rajasthan and Gujarat. West Rajasthan has received 71% more rain than normal and Saurashtra and Kutch has received +66%. Heavy rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan in August was attributed to a deep depression over the region. Last year also, West Rajasthan had ended the season at 42% of excess rainfall. Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat had reported 48% of excess rains.

A look at even more granular data shows Devbhoomi Dwarka in Gujarat has received 235% more--or more than thrice--rainfall than normal, and Kutch has received +103% or double the normal. Rajasthan’s Jaisalmer has received +143% and Dausa +137%.

Meanwhile, Lahaul and Spiti falls in the large deficient category at -73% rainfall received along with Poonch in J&K at -76%. Even in Uttar Pradesh, Shamli stands at -73% deficit. In other words, these districts received a quarter of the normal rainfall.

How did this happen, considering the monsoon set over India earlier than usual?

A look at the week-by-week cumulative data (available only up to September 11) tells the further story.

Season’s rain dumped in weeks

Even though Gangetic West Bengal might end the season at a ‘normal’, it stood at a large deficit which started from the second week of June itself and carried on up to August 21. But good showers in the weeks that followed pulled it out of the deficit and ended at a ‘normal’ by September 11.

Western UP stood at a 67% deficit in the week ending June 26. But with good rainfall within two weeks, this went into the ‘excess’ category at +39% by July 10, ending at a normal.

Not all subdivisions were so lucky though.

Bihar was in deficit up to the week ending July 3. This was followed by some good spells which helped recover the number. But it fell again in the red zone July 24 onwards and did not recover.

Even Punjab could not climb out of the red zone until September. It stood at a major deficit of -79% rainfall in the week of June 26, and only improved to ‘deficient’ in the following weeks.

Himachal Pradesh also had a deficit of -67% by the week of June 19 and stayed in the red throughout, ending the season at -20%.

Large variations in rainfall can also be seen in places which saw ‘excess’ or ‘large excess’ rains.

For example, the first week of June ended with excess rains in both West and East Madhya Pradesh, with more than 120% rainfall surplus. However, the next three weeks saw less rain, leading to June ending on a poor note for both. It was only sustained rainfall in July, August and September that recovered the seasonal total.

The Saurashtra and Kutch region received 352% excess rain by the first week of June. Yet, the monthly rainfall ended in a deficit because there was less rain in the weeks that followed. Heavy rains in August and September put the region in the ‘excess’ category.

A total of 47 districts in India have seen 60% or more than normal rainfall (called ‘large excess’) so far, of which Rajasthan has the most at 17 districts. Of 729 Indian districts which submitted data as of September 26, 163 districts saw excess rainfall (20% to 59% more than normal). Maharashtra has the most of these districts at 21.

Bihar had the highest number of districts with deficient rainfall (-59% to -20%) at 27 followed by UP at 24. UP had the highest number of districts with large deficient rainfall (-99% to -60%) at four.

Other examples of wide variation in monsoon rainfall are seen across the country. For example, on July 8, Baheri station in Bareilly district received an unusually high 460 mm rainfall in a single day. On July 19, Porbandar got 490 mm rain and on July 25, Tamhini area in Pune district got 560 mm rain in a single day.

Impact on agriculture

Since India is an agrarian country, a large part of our economy and livelihoods depend on the monsoon. A deficient monsoon impacts kharif yield, which in turn affects food prices and inflation. Also, the moisture retained in the soil after the monsoon is important for the winter crops in rabi season. How does this year’s season fare for our crops?

Pushan Sharma, director for research at CRISIL Market Intelligence and Analytics, said the overall outlook is positive.

“Every year, there is a lot of variation in spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall but this year has been better on both aspects. And looking at kharif sowing, yes, Punjab and Bihar are impacted but Punjab is a highly irrigated state. It is only in Bihar, where the area under irrigation is not as high, where there is some level of deficiency,” said Sharma.

Sharma expects an enhanced paddy yield this year.

“Paddy is a flood irrigated crop. So, the dynamics are favourable--about a 1% increase in yield and 2% increase in area should lead to an overall 3% growth in production of paddy. Things look good for pulses, especially toor dal. Since apple production happens in Jammu & Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, they can expect impact on production this year due to less rainfall,” said Sharma.

Vijay Sardana, a Delhi-based agriculture trade expert, raised concerns of groundwater extraction in Punjab due to less rainfall.

“The biggest challenge is that this time it will lead to more groundwater extraction that will increase the state’s power subsidy bill, disrupting the state’s budget. Bihar thankfully has better groundwater levels and a number of rivers like Ganga,” said Sardana.

IndiaSpend wrote to the Union agriculture ministry with questions on what steps it is taking to account for any dip in kharif yield from states with low rainfall, whether there will be any impact on overall kharif production and the rabi season, what measures it is taking to help the apple farmers and industry. This story will be updated when we receive a response.

(Kanishk Shetty, intern with IndiaSpend, contributed to this report.)

We welcome feedback. Please write to respond@indiaspend.org. We reserve the right to edit responses for language and grammar.