Is AAP A Bigger Threat To BJP Than Congress?

With the AAP’s declaration of participating in the General Elections 2014 and their growing popularity, clearly, in the 2014 Parliamentary elections, the three top contending parties will be BJP, INC and AAP. The latter party has a membership of over 10 million people and is estimated to field about 350 candidates in the Lok Sabha 2014 polls. In an earlier report IndiaSpend put forward an inference as to how the state elections or the number of seats a party holds in a particular state can predict what the position of the party will be in the preceding national elections from that state. Delhi state elections 2013 can be a lens to look at the swing of seats in the coming polls.

Full View (SAD and independent candidate are not mentioned for this year and for last election also, other parties are also  not mentioned ) (Source: Election Commission of India) Highlights of 2013:

• INC lost 35 seats
• BJP got 17 of INC seats
• AAP got 17 of INC seats
• SAD got 1 INC seat
• AAP won 28 seats.

Although, BJP and AAP got the same number of INC seats, here is one interesting fact from the loss point of view for both parties-

• AAP won 39 % of INC seats (17/43 of INC seats went to AAP)
• AAP won 47 % of BJP seats (11/23 of BJP seats went to AAP)

The Delhi elections were predominantly anti-INC and hence, it was a gain for both the parties, but AAP as a new contender, is taking away seats from other parties too.