How Warmer Spring Impacts Harvest, Health

As winter winds up by February, March and April are considered the months of spring in India. However, for a few years now, winter suddenly gives way to summer-like temperatures starting as early as February. This leaves no room for a gradual rise in temperature, and for people and ecosystems to adjust to the change.

This year saw the second warmest January since 1901 partly owing to weak winter rainfall. This was followed by our warmest February. March saw many parts of the country touching 40 degrees Celsius, with the occasional spike to 42°C. The meteorological department had already forecast above-normal number of heatwave days over most parts of the country this summer. This forecast comes close on the heels of 2024 being recorded as the earth’s warmest year. Last year, more than 40,000 people showed heat stroke symptoms in summer, and India reported over 100 heat-related deaths.

As the lines between spring and summer get blurred, we explore what a vanishing spring season means for people’s health, agriculture, water and food security.

Feb 40s

This year, as early as February 27, parts of India including Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi, West Uttar Pradesh, East Rajasthan, Konkan and Goa had reported temperatures five degrees above normal. And parts of Kerala had recorded 40°C earlier than usual. By March 13, Rajkot in Gujarat had recorded a daytime temperature of 42.1°C and on March 18, Boudh in Odisha had recorded 43.6°C.

At 40.1°C, Delhi recorded a maximum temperature six degrees above normal in the last week of March, and IMD has warned of double the number of heatwave days across Northwest India.

“India is experiencing a ‘disappearing spring’ due to climate change, with rising temperatures causing February temperatures to resemble those of April,” said Anjal Prakash, Research Director at Bharati Institute of Public Policy and an Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) author. “This shift results in a shorter, less distinct spring and an earlier onset of summer-like conditions, characterized by significantly higher daytime and nighttime temperatures.”

These concerns were reflected in a 2024 research paper which analysed the monthly average temperature for 33 states and Union territories from 1970 to 2024. This research showed that most parts of India have seen warming in February, and that the warming is especially pronounced in many regions that showed cooling or low warming in the previous months. Jammu and Kashmir had the highest warming (3.1°C) and Telangana had the lowest (0.4°C), the 2024 paper published by independent think-tank Climate Central found.

In the northern part of India, the contrast between January trends (cooling or slight warming) and February (strong warming) means that these regions now have the potential for abrupt transitions from cool winter-like temperatures to the much warmer conditions that traditionally occurred in March.

The research paper looked at the difference between the January and February warming rates and found that the largest jump in warming rates occurred in Rajasthan, where February warming was 2.6°C higher than January. A total of nine states and UTs showed a January-February difference of more than 2°C, including Rajasthan, Haryana, Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Ladakh, Punjab, Jammu and Kashmir and Uttarakhand.

“This supports the reports that it feels like spring has disappeared in many parts of India,” the paper found.

Winter and autumn are warming too.

Every region considered in the Climate Central research had net warming during winter. Manipur had the largest change since 1970 (2.3°C), while Delhi had the smallest (0.2°C).

“Winter is the fastest warming season for 12 out of the 34 states and territories considered. This is second only to autumn, which was the fastest warming season in 13 regions,” the report found.

IndiaSpend wrote to the IMD with questions related to the changing nature of spring season, warming months, whether it intends to adjust the ‘normals’ for these months and how it plans to help farmers cope with the changing spring trends. This story will be updated when we receive a response.

When spring weakens

“Crops like wheat and mangoes, which rely on gradual temperature changes, could suffer as sudden temperature spikes impact flowering and grain filling stages, potentially leading to reduced yields,” said Prakash.

“Additionally, warmer temperatures might increase the prevalence of pests and diseases, putting extra stress on crops,” Prakash said. “The water resources are also at risk, as this situation can increase evaporation rates, leading to higher water demand for irrigation. With reduced winter rains and an early summer onset, it can exacerbate drought conditions in some regions.”

Mango farmer and distributor Praful Kamble from Ratnagiri’s Vetushi village is experiencing some of this at first hand.

“Typically, after Diwali, mango trees flower or what we call catching mohor,” Kamble said. “November to February are the most important months for mangoes. This time, there was a lot of flowering but in the first bloom, there were no fruits. We expected 5-6 mangoes for every bloom but there was not a single one! It had rained a lot in Konkan but winter was very weak. The weather is hotter than usual since February.” Kamble estimates that Konkan has 20% less mango production this season.

Warming weather is bad for Rabi crops or winter crops that are harvested January onwards. Rabi crops include wheat, rice or paddy, pulses, maize and oilseeds, that are staples in the Indian diet. So far, India has sown Rabi crops over 661 lakh hectare area as against 651 lakh hectare last year.

Chandni Singh, lead researcher at Indian Institute for Human Settlements and an IPCC author, said, “Across India, October to December is key to the agricultural cycle with staples like wheat, potato, mustard as well as vegetables being grown in this period. A warmer winter and spring mean lower yields, more pest incidence, and in spring, higher food waste across the agriculture supply chain since there is a lack of post-harvest refrigeration infrastructure.”

IndiaSpend wrote to the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare on what steps it is taking to prepare farmers for these changes in weather, whether it plans to compensate farmers for any losses due to warming spring, what steps it is taking to develop infrastructure. This story will be updated when we receive a response.

Impact on health

In February, temperatures in Mumbai saw a sudden spike to beyond 36°C, which was four to five degrees above normal. Soon after, the city saw a surge in flu cases. Doctors reported an increase in flu or influenza-like symptoms. Shifting seasonal disease patterns like these could be attributed to climate change, experts say.

“The biggest concerns about a warmer year and shorter winter is on human health. We know that heat is driving up incidence of vector-borne disease like dengue; such diseases are spreading into the foothills and midhills of the Himalayas too. But as the overall year gets hotter, there are expected knock-on effects on kidney functioning, neonatal and maternal health also,” said Singh.

The health impacts of changing climate are not always immediately apparent.

Ambarish Dutta, Additional Professor at Public Health Foundation of India (PHFI), said that since climate change is bringing about longer spans of higher temperatures, it can undo some of India’s progress on undernutrition.

“It has been established that undernutrition in rural India is linked to higher temperatures for a multitude of reasons. If hot weather seasons last longer, that can offset the progress India has made in the field of nutrition or lead to problems such as low birth weight of newborns,” said Dutta who stressed that while extreme heat events happen occasionally, it is exposure to basic heat for long durations that should be paid attention to.

“Extreme heat is not always the only culprit. Heat itself is the culprit,” said Dutta. “Now you are exposed to the harmful effects of heat for two months more. Five days of extreme heat affects less than 6.5-7 months of heat. In fact, seven months has now become nine months, autumn and spring is gone.”

IndiaSpend wrote to the Ministry of Health on what steps it is taking to address short term and long term health concerns due to a warming spring. This story will be updated when we receive a response.

Spring season has traditionally been associated with new beginnings but is now beginning to be associated with warm days and nights.

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